Is it possible or practical to predict vog? The Vog Measurement and Prediction Project (VMAP) is a feasibility study in which scientists will evaluate [are evaluating] whether vog forecasts are achievable and useful. Project collaborators are making the feasibility study available to the public through this Web site, but as an ongoing investigation, VMAP currently provides limited service and reliability. Thus, VMAP users should have no expectation of accuracy or timeliness, and project data should not be used for decision making purposes at this time. Comments and inquiries can be directed to the appropriate contact.

Vog is primarily a mixture of sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas and sulfate (SO4) aerosol. SO2 (invisible) reacts with oxygen and moisture in the air to produce SO4 aerosol (visible). SO2 is expected to be the main problem in areas near the vent (Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park, Pahala, Na`alehu, Hawaiian Ocean View Estates) and SO4 aerosol is expected to be the main problem at locations far from the vent (Kona and farther north and west).

 

Vog Model

The model output animation and accompanying forecast table is generated using the HYSPLIT numerical dispersion model. The model uses estimates of volcano emissions along with forecast winds to predict the concentrations of sulfur dioxide gas (SO2) and sulfate aerosol particles (SO4) downwind of the ongoing Kilauea eruption. This is a research effort that is in progress.

For emissions updates click here

Click here for model statistics. For a history of the VMAP model parameters, click here.

 

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Select Region: Island of Hawaii | Hawaiian Islands
Select Variable: SO2 | Sulfate Aerosols
Select Animation Style: GIF | Java | Flash

HYSPLIT Java Animation

 

For an explanation of the SO2 color scale, click here. For a detailed explanation of the PM2.5 Aerosol color scheme, click here.

Click the image above to view meteograms for each location.

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The location of the sites in the table below are shown on the map linked here.

Table of model predicted values of Sulfate Aerosols micrograms per meter cubed (µg/m³)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View		 Jaggar
Museum		 HVNP
Visitor
Center		 Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View		 Lihue
Fri, May 17, 2013 0400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fri, May 17, 2013 0700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fri, May 17, 2013 1000 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fri, May 17, 2013 1300 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 21 0
Fri, May 17, 2013 1600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Fri, May 17, 2013 1900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
Fri, May 17, 2013 2200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
Sat, May 18, 2013 0100 0 0 0 0 9 0 1 0 0 0 0
Sat, May 18, 2013 0400 0 0 0 0 5 0 19 0 0 0 0
Sat, May 18, 2013 0700 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0
Sat, May 18, 2013 1000 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 0
Sat, May 18, 2013 1300 0 0 8 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
Sat, May 18, 2013 1600 0 0 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 28 0
Sat, May 18, 2013 1900 0 0 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sat, May 18, 2013 2200 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun, May 19, 2013 0100 0 0 22 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun, May 19, 2013 0400 17 9 23 28 15 0 0 0 0 13 0
Sun, May 19, 2013 0700 18 1 5 10 32 0 0 0 0 1 0
Sun, May 19, 2013 1000 9 8 21 15 6 0 11 0 0 10 0
Sun, May 19, 2013 1200 7 3 0 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 0

Daily discussion of vog concentrations over the Hawaiian Islands as a result of the interaction of the volcanic emissions and the current and forecast weather.