Vog Model

The model output animation and accompanying forecast table is generated using the HYSPLIT numerical dispersion model. The model uses estimates of volcano emissions along with forecast winds to predict the concentrations of sulfur dioxide gas (SO2) and sulfate aerosol particles (SO4) downwind of the ongoing Kilauea eruption. This is a research effort that is in progress. Disclaimer.


What are the new lines on the forecast graphics?  The new graphics now include contours of the topography (lines that connect areas of equal elevation) to display important features of the terrain.

What is the vog forecast ensemble?  An ensemble is a group of items viewed together instead of individually. In this case, the ensemble is a group of vog forecasts. We are now running the vog model 27 times! When you view the entire ensemble of forecasts together, it can create a better forecast and provide information about how 'certain' the model is. For example, imagine a lot of forecasters in a room together. When individual people produce forecasts each forecaster may have considered something a little different than the other people in the group. By combining forecasts together and averaging them, often a better forecast is created than any one forecaster working alone. Not only that, but how much the forecasts differ from each other provides information about how certain the group is of their forecast. The ensemble average (or mean) shown here represents the average concentrations predicted by all 27 members together. The ensemble spread (or variance) provides information about where the forecasts disagree or differ from each other and by how much.

 

Island of Hawaii SO2

Island of Hawaii Sulfate Aerosols

Island of Hawaii SO2 (Ensemble Average)

Island of Hawaii Sulfate Aerosols (Ensemble Average)

Island of Hawaii SO2 (Ensemble Spread/Variance)

Island of Hawaii Sulfate Aerosols (Ensemble Spread/Variance)

Hawaiian Islands SO2

Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosols

Hawaiian Islands SO2 (Ensemble Average)

Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosols (Ensemble Average)

Hawaiian Islands SO2 (Ensemble Spread/Variance)

Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosols (Ensemble Spread/Variance)

 

For an explanation of the SO2 color scale, click here.

For further information on the Health effects of Vog, click here.

The location of the sites in the table below are shown on the map linked here.

Table of model predicted values of SO2 (PPM)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Tue, Oct 17, 2017 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 0100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 1300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 0100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 1200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table of model predicted values for Sulfate Aerosols micrograms per meter cubed (µg/m³)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Tue, Oct 17, 2017 2200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 0100 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 0400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 0700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 0
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 1000 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 31 0
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 1300 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 32 0
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 1600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 1900 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0
Wed, Oct 18, 2017 2200 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 0100 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 0400 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 0700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Oct 19, 2017 1200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0