Vog Model

The model output animation and accompanying forecast table is generated using the HYSPLIT numerical dispersion model. The model uses estimates of volcano emissions along with forecast winds to predict the concentrations of sulfur dioxide gas (SO2) and sulfate aerosol particles (SO4) downwind of the ongoing Kilauea eruption. This is a research effort that is in progress. Disclaimer.

As of 1 January 2014, a major change was made at Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) in the way Sulfure Dioxide (SO2) emissions from the Halema'uma'u vent are reported. The resultant change in emissions values represents a substantial increase in emissions being reported. This does not mean that volcanic emissions have gone up overnight. This change results from long-term observations that suggest that previous estimates were under-reporting emissions. The change in emissions impacts the Vog Model which utilizes these emissions estimates in order to produce forecasts. Our goal is to bring the model into agreement with sulfure dioxide and sulafte observations throughout the Hawaiian Islands while utilizing the updated emissions estimates from HVO. For a more detailed discussion of these changes click Here.


 

Island of Hawaii SO2

GIF Loop

Island of Hawaii Sulfate Aerosols

GIF Loop

Hawaiian Islands SO2

GIF Loop

Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosols

GIF Loop

 

For an explanation of the SO2 color scale, click here. For a detailed explanation of the PM2.5 Aerosol color scheme, click here.

For further information on the Health effects of Vog, click here.

This plot represents estimated emissions data (Metric tons per day) from the active Kilauea vents. These values are multi-day running averages and are used as input for the vog model. The shaded area represents +/- one standard deviation of the running mean, which gives an idea of the spead of the emissions data that are averaged into the running mean. For more detailed emissions data click here.

 

Click here for model statistics. For a history of the VMAP model parameters, click here.

 

The location of the sites in the table below are shown on the map linked here.

Table of model predicted values of SO2 (PPM)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Sun, Aug 31, 2014 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sun, Aug 31, 2014 1900 0.00 0.00 0.12 1.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sun, Aug 31, 2014 2200 0.00 0.00 0.61 1.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 0100 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 0400 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 1300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 0100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 1300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Sep 03, 2014 0000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table of model predicted values for Sulfate Aerosols micrograms per meter cubed (µg/m³)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Sun, Aug 31, 2014 1600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun, Aug 31, 2014 1900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun, Aug 31, 2014 2200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 0100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 0400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 0700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 1300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 1600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 1900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mon, Sep 01, 2014 2200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 0100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 0400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 0700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 1300 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 1600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 1900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 02, 2014 2200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wed, Sep 03, 2014 0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0