The model output animation and accompanying forecast table is generated using the HYSPLIT numerical dispersion model. The model uses estimates of volcano emissions along with forecast winds to predict the concentrations of sulfur dioxide gas (SO2) and sulfate aerosol particles (SO4) downwind of the ongoing Kilauea eruption. This is a research effort that is in progress. Disclaimer.
As of 1 January 2014, a major change was made at Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) in the way Sulfure Dioxide (SO2) emissions from the Halema'uma'u vent are reported. The resultant change in emissions values represents a substantial increase in emissions being reported. This does not mean that volcanic emissions have gone up overnight. This change results from long-term observations that suggest that previous estimates were under-reporting emissions. The change in emissions impacts the Vog Model which utilizes these emissions estimates in order to produce forecasts. Our goal is to bring the model into agreement with sulfure dioxide and sulafte observations throughout the Hawaiian Islands while utilizing the updated emissions estimates from HVO. For a more detailed discussion of these changes click Here.
This plot represents estimated emissions data (Metric tons per day) from the active Kilauea vents. These values are multi-day running averages and are used as input for the vog model. The shaded area represents +/- one standard deviation of the running mean, which gives an idea of the spead of the emissions data that are averaged into the running mean. For more detailed emissions data click here.
The location of the sites in the table below are shown on the map linked here.