Vog Model

The model output animation and accompanying forecast table is generated using the HYSPLIT numerical dispersion model. The model uses estimates of volcano emissions along with forecast winds to predict the concentrations of sulfur dioxide gas (SO2) and sulfate aerosol particles (SO4) downwind of the ongoing Kilauea eruption. This is a research effort that is in progress. Disclaimer.


During 7-15 Feb 2018, only the deterministic vog forecast will be available due to UH cluster downtime



 

Island of Hawaii SO2

Island of Hawaii Sulfate Aerosols

Hawaiian Islands SO2

Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosols

 

For an explanation of the SO2 color scale, click here.

For further information on the Health effects of Vog, click here.

The location of the sites in the table below are shown on the map linked here.

Table of model predicted values of SO2 (PPM)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Sat, Feb 17, 2018 1600 0.00 0.00 1.67 1.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sat, Feb 17, 2018 1900 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sat, Feb 17, 2018 2200 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 0100 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 1000 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 1300 0.00 0.00 4.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.01
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 1600 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 1900 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 2200 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 0100 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 0400 0.17 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 0700 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 1000 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 1200 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

Table of model predicted values for Sulfate Aerosols micrograms per meter cubed (µg/m³)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Sat, Feb 17, 2018 1600 0 0 17 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sat, Feb 17, 2018 1900 0 0 5 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sat, Feb 17, 2018 2200 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 0100 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 0400 0 0 0 0 0 0 83 0 0 19 0
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 0700 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 250 0
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 1000 0 0 20 1 0 0 1 0 0 65 0
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 1300 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 1
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 1600 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 1900 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun, Feb 18, 2018 2200 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 0100 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 0400 51 4 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 0700 0 3 7 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 1000 0 0 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
Mon, Feb 19, 2018 1200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0