Vog Model

The model output animation and accompanying forecast table is generated using the HYSPLIT numerical dispersion model. The model uses estimates of volcano emissions along with forecast winds to predict the concentrations of sulfur dioxide gas (SO2) and sulfate aerosol particles (SO4) downwind of the ongoing Kilauea eruption. This is a research effort that is in progress. Disclaimer.





Notice: VMAP forecasts will be unavailable on January 20th, 2018 due to a power outage.

 

Island of Hawaii SO2 (Prob. of Exceeding 0.01 ppm)

Island of Hawaii Sulfate Aerosols (Prob. of Exceeding 1 ug/m3 )

Hawaiian Islands SO2 (Prob. of Exceeding 0.01 ppm)

Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosols (Prob. of Exceeding 1 ug/m3 )


To view forecast animations, click the images above or select from the options below.

For the 'old' forecast graphics, select the 'Regular (Deterministic) Forecast' from the product options.

      DOMAIN      SPECIES    PRODUCT



The location of the sites in the table below are shown on the map linked here.

Table of model predicted values of SO2 (PPM)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Mon, Jan 22, 2018 0100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Jan 22, 2018 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Jan 22, 2018 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Jan 22, 2018 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mon, Jan 22, 2018 1300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00
Mon, Jan 22, 2018 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00
Mon, Jan 22, 2018 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Mon, Jan 22, 2018 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Tue, Jan 23, 2018 0100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Jan 23, 2018 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Jan 23, 2018 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Jan 23, 2018 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00
Tue, Jan 23, 2018 1300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Tue, Jan 23, 2018 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Jan 23, 2018 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00
Tue, Jan 23, 2018 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00
Wed, Jan 24, 2018 0000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

Table of model predicted values for Sulfate Aerosols micrograms per meter cubed (µg/m³)