329 
 WTNT45 KNHC 061408
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 10 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006
  
 ZETA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISHEVELED LOOKING THIS
 MORNING... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SHARP DOWN TURN IN THE SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES... WHICH ARE NOW ONLY 25-30 KT. REPORTS FROM
 NEARBY SHIPS AT 12Z HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT... SO THERE MAY BE SOME
 30-KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST IN WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6.  ZETA HAS MADE A SOUTHWESTERLY
 JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 
 MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. AFTER 24-46 HOURS... ZETA IS
 FORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD
 AHEAD OF... OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH... A SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
 MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK TO ADJUST FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... BUT THE
 TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS
 INDICATE A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
 PASSING OVER ZETA MAY HAVE DELIVERED THE KNOCKOUT PUNCH WE HAVE
 BEEN ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR. THE MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS
 ALSO VERY DRY WITH ONLY 18-25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE
 COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR
 AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO...FINALLY...BRING THE 2005
 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO AN END...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS
 AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/1500Z 23.0N  49.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     07/0000Z 23.4N  51.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     07/1200Z 24.5N  54.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     08/0000Z 26.4N  56.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  58.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     09/1200Z 33.5N  56.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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