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 422 
 WTNT45 KNHC 051416
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 10 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006
  
 A 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CAME IN SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED INDICATED SEVERAL 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
 WIND VECTORS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...
 CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE FULLY
 EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE 12Z DVORAK SATELLITE SHEAR PATTERN
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE TAFB WAS 35 KT... AND
 CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EVEN CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE THAT
 ANALYSIS WAS MADE. IN ADDITION... SHIP ZCIH7 LOCATED ABOUT 135 NMI
 NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 30 KT... WHICH MATCHED
 UP WELL WITH NEARBY QUIKSCAT WINDS. SO...REGRETFULLY...THE
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT AND ZETA IS A TROPICAL STORM
 ONCE AGAIN. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 05/0915Z UW-CIMSS
 AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1006 MB AND 38 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ZETA IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
 SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS
 SATELLITE WIND ANALYSES INDICATE A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
 LOCATED ALONG 56W LONGITUDE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS
 EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT ZETA POLEWARD AND/OR SHEAR THE SYSTEM
 APART... LEAVING BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24-36
 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW MAY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO
 A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
  
 THE SHIPS MODEL'S 850-200 MB SHEAR OF 68 KT IS NOT THE ACTUAL SHEAR 
 AFFECTING ZETA. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 850-300 MB WESTERLY
 SHEAR TO ONLY BE AROUND 30-35 KT. AS A RESULT... ZETA MIGHT BE ABLE
 TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO
 BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS VERY HOSTILE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
 BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/1500Z 22.4N  47.6W    35 KT
  12HR VT     06/0000Z 23.3N  48.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N  49.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     07/0000Z 25.3N  51.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     07/1200Z 26.3N  53.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  56.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED
 
 $$
 
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