230 
 WTNT45 KNHC 030232
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 10 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006
  
 ZETA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS THAT EVERY PULSE OF
 STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS TRIED TO APPROACH ZETA BECOMES
 DIVERTED AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT
 BECOME SHEARED. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS OVER
 THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD. BOTH SUBJECTIVE
 AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE
 LATEST SSMI IMAGE SHOW A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN
 EYEWALL...BUT NOT QUITE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 50
 KNOTS AND I COULD GO EVEN HIGHER IF THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IS USED. 
 
 A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA
 ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES
 IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE
 HURRICANE. I WAS TEMPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFDL TREND BUT I HESITATED
 SINCE I AM NOT READY FOR SUCH AGGRESSIVE FORECAST YET GIVEN THE
 APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BY EVERY OTHER MODEL.  ALL
 I AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A
 GRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY.   
 
 ZETA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OR DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
 HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH
 ZETA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
 WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. 
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0300Z 23.5N  41.2W    50 KT
  12HR VT     03/1200Z 23.4N  41.8W    45 KT
  24HR VT     04/0000Z 23.3N  42.7W    30 KT
  36HR VT     04/1200Z 23.2N  43.8W    25 KT
  48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N  45.0W    25 KT
  72HR VT     06/0000Z 25.0N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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