801 
 WTNT45 KNHC 020830
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 4 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006
  
 ZETA IS HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE FACE OF MODERATE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
 SHEAR. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C HAS
 REDEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND THE
 OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
 QUIKSCAT AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
 DISCUSSION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45
 KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A TAFB SHEAR INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF
 T3.0/45 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND
 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ZETA MAY HAVE MADE A MORE 
 WESTWARD TURN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
 STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE AS NOTED IN QUIKSCAT AND
 INFRARED SATELLITE DATA. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS...
 STEERING ZETA WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
 AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYS1S PRODUCTS INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
 RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... WHILE ACCOMPANIED BY A
 DECREASE IN THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DEEP
 CONVECTION MAY REMAIN INTACT A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
 IS INDICATING. HOWEVER... BY 24-36 HOURS... ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
 AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF
 THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHEAR
 AWAY MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION... AND FINALLY BRING THE
 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO A MERCIFUL ENDING. EVEN THE
 LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 24.5N  39.7W    45 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 24.4N  40.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 24.3N  41.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 24.2N  42.8W    25 KT
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 24.2N  44.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$