465 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 050841
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number  11
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
 300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018
 
 The satellite presentation of Xavier has degraded somewhat
 overnight, with the main area of convection decreasing in coverage
 and becoming more separated from the low-level center.  Somewhat
 surprisingly, a couple of ASCAT passes between 0345 and 0500 UTC
 indicated peak winds of around 50 kt.  This suggests that Xavier may
 have been slightly stronger than previously estimated since the
 overall structure of the storm was better defined yesterday
 afternoon and evening.  Based on these data, the intensity was
 adjusted to 50 kt on the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory, and remains
 at that value for now.  The intensity forecast reasoning remains
 unchanged.  Strong shear and an increasingly drier mid-level air
 mass are expected to cause the tropical storm to weaken fairly
 quickly over the next day or so, and the global models suggest that
 Xavier will degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours.
 
 Xavier has been moving slowly northwestward or 305/3 kt. A low- to
 mid-level ridge that is building to the north of Xavier should
 cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, and then westward
 during the next 12 to 24 hours.  As the system weakens it is
 forecast to move westward or west-southwestward within the
 low-level flow until dissipation occurs in 3 to 4 days.  The track
 guidance envelope shifted somewhat southward this cycle, and as a
 result, the official forecast was adjusted in that direction but it
 remains to the north of the consensus models out of respect for
 continuity with the previous NHC track.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0900Z 18.4N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown