730 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 050234
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
 900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018
 
 Xavier continues to be influenced by strong southwesterly shear, on
 the order of 30 kt, yet appears to be maintaining its intensity for
 now.  In fact, microwave imagery shows only a slight eastward tilt
 of the center with height which is surprising for a tropical
 cyclone apparently experiencing shear of such magnitude.  It is
 quite possible that strong upper-level divergence over the area is
 helping to maintain the strength of the storm.  Dvorak intensity
 estimates remain at 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB which will continue
 to be used for the advisory intensity.  In spite of Xavier's
 resilience to a hostile atmospheric environment, the strong shear
 and an increasingly drier mid-level air mass should soon take their
 toll on the cyclone.  The GFS and the ECMWF global models suggest
 that the system will degenerate into a remnant low within a couple
 of days, and this is also shown by the official forecast.
 
 Xavier has been moving slowly and just to the west of north, or a
 motion of 350/5 kt, toward a slight weakness in the mid-level flow
 to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula.  A ridge is
 forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, and this should cause
 Xavier to turn toward the west-northwest during the next day or so.
 By 3-4 days, the weak and shallow cyclone is likely to move
 generally westward within the low-level flow field.  The official
 forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the
 latest dynamical model consensus track.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 18.5N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 18.8N 106.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 19.3N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 19.6N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  08/0000Z 19.7N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  09/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch