262 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 030233
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
 900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018
 
 For the 22nd time this year, a tropical storm (Xavier) has formed
 over the eastern North Pacific. The most recent intensity estimates
 from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support increasing the initial
 intensity to 35 kt. Xavier is the first tropical storm to reach the
 "X" name on the East Pacific namelist since 1992.
 
 No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast. The tropical
 storm is strongly sheared from the southwest and convective activity
 is limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Although Xavier
 should be located over warm waters for the next 5 days, strong
 upper-level southwesterly flow will cause high wind shear across the
 cyclone. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast that the
 tropical storm could strengthen a little more over the next day or
 so, while the statistical guidance indicates that Xavier is already
 near its peak intensity. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
 consensus and shows slight strengthening through the weekend. By
 early next week, increased shear and a drier surrounding environment
 will likely cause Xavier to weaken and become a remnant low.
 
 It has been difficult to identify the center of Xavier this evening,
 but it is estimated that the tropical storm is still moving
 generally east-northeastward at around 7 kt. A weakness in the
 subtropical ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending
 over central Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico should cause Xavier to
 turn toward the northeast or north overnight and tomorrow. There has
 been a shift in the GFS and its associated regional models, which
 now show a farther northeast track of Xavier, closer to the coast of
 Mexico. However, a majority of the dynamical models still show the
 cyclone turning abruptly westward and away from land while it
 weakens by early next week. Out of respect for the ECMWF and its
 ensemble, which show a much farther west track for Xavier, the NHC
 forecast has been nudged only slightly toward the northeast through
 48 h and now lies a little to the west of the TVCE track consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 14.5N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 15.6N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 16.4N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 17.1N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky