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 705 
 WTNT44 KNHC 240319
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
 
 WILMA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING WITH THE
 LARGE 45 NMI DIAMETER BECOMING VERY DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE AND
 RADAR IMAGERY. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
 114 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0104Z... WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 103
 KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM KEY WEST HAS ALSO BEEN
 AS HIGH AS 109 KT AT 12000 FT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED
 TO 958 MB... OR ABOUT 104 KT USING A STANDARD PRESSURE-WIND
 RELATIONSHIP. BASED ON THIS WIND INFORMATION AND THE CONTINUED
 INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL CONVECTION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
 BEEN CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 100 KT... OR CATEGORY THREE/MAJOR
 HURRICANE STATUS. A RECON VORTEX MESSAGE JUST HANDED TO ME NOW
 INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 957 MB.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/16. DUE TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TILT... THE
 SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED ABOUT ONE-TENTH OF A DEGREE SOUTH OF
 THE RECON POSITIONS. WILMA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED BY 4 KT
 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND CONTINUED ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED
 FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA WILL LIKELY BE MOVING AT FORWARD
 SPEEDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
 COAST AND CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NHC
 MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 TRACK... SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE
 FORWARD SPEED AT ALL TIMES... ESPECIALLY AFTER WILMA EMERGES OVER
 THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA... AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET
 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HAS
 EXTENDED ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
 WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOW IMPINGING ON THE
 WESTERN SIDE OF WILMA... SO A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD
 THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA SEEMS
 LIKELY. THEREFORE... A TRACK FROM COLLIER COUNTY TO NEAR LAKE
 OKEECHOBEE AND EXITING PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS
 SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER... GIVEN THAT WILMA HAS A 40-50 NMI
 DIAMETER EYE... HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM
 WHERE THE EXACT CENTER PASSES. IN THE LONGER TERM... ONCE WILMA
 EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
 THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ACT TO LIFT WILMA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
 TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OFF
 THE U.S. EAST COAST... WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURRING
 OVER NOVA SCOTIA AS A POWERFUL AND VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.
 
 NOW THAT WILMA HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD... THE EFFECTS OF ANY
 UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMIZED RIGHT UP UNTIL THE HURRICANE
 REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
 THE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS SHOULD REMAIN INTACT UNTIL WILMA REACHES
 THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WHICH FAVOR AT LEAST SUSTAINING THE CURRENT
 INTENSITY. EYES THIS LARGE ARE ALSO MORE STABLE AND ARE MORE
 RESISTANT TO VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
 MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY
 MONDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER... ANOTHER 5-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY MAY
 OCCUR WHILE WILMA REMAINS OVER THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GULF LOOP
 CURRENT. GIVEN THE FAST FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED AS WILMA TRAVERSES
 THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... LESS WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS
 COMPARED TO TYPICAL HURRICANES MOVING OVER LAND. THEREFORE... WILMA
 IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE
 FLORIDA EAST COAST. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC... INCREASING
 VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
 SHOULD RESULT IN WILMA TRANSITIONING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
 EXTRATROPICAL WINTER-TYPE STORM SYSTEM... WHICH MAY PRODUCE A LARGE
 GALE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM THAT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS
 OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 24.4N  83.7W   100 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 26.2N  81.2W   100 KT...INLAND SWRN FLORIDA
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 30.2N  76.3W    75 KT...OVER ATLANTIC
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 36.5N  69.9W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 42.9N  64.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 48.0N  60.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 49.5N  49.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     29/0000Z 50.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 
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