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 615 
 WTNT44 KNHC 230302
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
  
 THE CENTER OF WILMA HAS MOVED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
 YUCATAN PENINSULA.  EARLIER REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
 AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 700
 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT 30-35 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE
 PLANE ALSO REPORTED THE REMAINS OF AN INNER EYEWALL...AND AN OUTER
 EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER VARYING BETWEEN 60-80 N MI.  SINCE THE
 CENTER LEFT THE COAST... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF
 THE CLOUD TOPS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS...ALTHOUGH
 THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TO JUSTIFY
 INCREASING THE WINDS.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE
 DATA SHOW THAT THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
 EASTERN UNITED STATES AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS.  THIS
 TROUGH SHOULD TURN WILMA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24
 HR...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION.  WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE
 GENERAL TRACK OF WILMA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHERE IN
 FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL.  THE 18Z GFS IS WELL TO THE
 LEFT...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WHILE THE 12Z 
 ECMWF IS WELL TO THE RIGHT...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO CROSS THE
 FLORIDA KEYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO
 THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE
 SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
 18Z GFDL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  WILMA
 SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC...
 AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE AFTER 96 HR.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  WILMA IS
 CURRENTLY TRYING TO FINISH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT BEGAN
 ALMOST 48 HR AGO.  THE LARGE SIZE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL ARGUES
 AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE WILL BE CROSSING
 THE LOOP CURRENT.  AFTER 24 HR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G4 JET SHOW THAT
 DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR IS LURKING JUST WEST OF WILMA AND COULD BE
 ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM NEAR THIS TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
 GFDL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...BRINGING THE STORM TO 95
 KT NEAR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A
 BLEND OF THE GFDL AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
 WILMA TO 100 KT IN 24 HR AND THEN WEAKENING A LITTLE BEFORE
 LANDFALL.  WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO
 HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A
 CATEGORY THREE.  AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD QUICKLY
 WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
  
 BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
 FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WARNING AND WATCHES HAVE
 BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0300Z 21.8N  86.9W    85 KT
  12HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N  86.3W    90 KT
  24HR VT     24/0000Z 24.0N  84.6W   100 KT
  36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.3N  81.5W    90 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  77.0W    75 KT...OVER WATER
  72HR VT     26/0000Z 41.0N  66.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     27/0000Z 46.0N  55.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     28/0000Z 46.0N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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