161 
 WTNT44 KNHC 212101
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
  
 THE EYE OF WILMA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONTRACTING DURING THE DAY...
 WITH THE EYE DIAMETER DOWN TO 25 N MI COMPARED TO 30 N MI THIS
 MORNING.  CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS REMAIN AT RADII OF ABOUT 20 AND 40 N
 MI... WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATING THAT THE OUTER
 EYEWALL CONTAINS THE STRONGEST WINDS.  SEVERAL EYEWALL DROPSONDES
 HAVE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS IN THE 110-130 KT RANGE.  ONE SUCH
 SONDE MEASUREMENT MIGHT NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
 WINDS... BUT A SEQUENCE OF THEM PROBABLY PROVIDES A REASONABLE
 ESTIMATED OF THE INTENSITY... WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE
 MIDDLE OF THIS RANGE AT 120 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO
 SUPPORTED BY 18Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT ARE UNANIMOUSLY
 T6.5/127 KT.
 
 WILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY TRACK WITH A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY MOTION OF 320 DEGREES AT 4
 KT.  THE CENTER OF THE EYE IS CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN END OF THE
 ISLAND OF COZUMEL AT THIS HOUR... BUT DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION IT
 WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE EYE TO CROSS THE
 NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  NEARLY ALL OF THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST WILMA TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND
 PROCEED RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES WILMA COULD SPEND ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER
 LAND... WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MORE WEAKENING THAN HAS
 PREVIOUSLY BEEN FORECAST.  OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL INCREASE THE
 DURATION OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER YUCATAN.  IT
 SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA
 AS A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS
 SUGGEST IT COULD LINGER FOR LONGER THAN THAT.  WHEN IT DOES REACH
 THE GULF OF MEXICO... CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
 LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  WHEN WILMA MOVES FARTHER
 NORTHEASTWARD AND WIND SHEAR INCREASES... A WEAKENING TREND IS
 EXPECTED PRIOR TO PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF
 THE INTENSITY AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA IS LESS THAN IN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER
 YUCATAN.
 
 THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT... AT LEAST FOR NOW...
 REGARDING WHERE WILMA WILL PASS OVER FLORIDA... ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
 OF COURSE ALL BE WRONG TO SOME DEGREE GIVEN THE 3-4 DAY LEAD TIME. 
 SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF THE IMPACT ON
 FLORIDA... SO THE WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
 INCREASED A LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WILMA WILL EVENTUALLY
 GO... THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING REMAINS LARGE.
 
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/2100Z 20.6N  86.9W   120 KT
  12HR VT     22/0600Z 20.9N  87.3W   100 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.2N  87.5W    80 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     23/0600Z 21.8N  87.4W    80 KT
  48HR VT     23/1800Z 22.7N  86.5W    90 KT
  72HR VT     24/1800Z 25.5N  82.5W    80 KT
  96HR VT     25/1800Z 32.0N  75.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     26/1800Z 42.0N  62.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
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