391 
 WTNT44 KNHC 211504
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
  
 WHETHER DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND OR SOME OTHER FACTORS... THE
 WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION BRIEFLY WEAKENED
 EARLIER THIS MORNING... BUT THAT DID NOT LAST LONG. THE RING OF
 VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECONSTITUTED AROUND THE ENTIRE 30 N MI
 WIDE EYE... WHICH HAS BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER AND WARMER IN
 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CANCUN RADAR DEPICTS A VERY SOLID OUTER
 EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL... AND THE INNER EYEWALL IS LIKELY WEAKER BUT
 PERHAPS NOT AS WEAK AS IT SEEMS ON RADAR DUE TO ATTENUATION.
 PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AND AMSU DURING THE PAST
 FEW HOURS DEPICT THE OUTER EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 45 N MI...
 AND EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA CONTAIN WIND MAXIMA AT RADII OF ABOUT 20
 AND 45 N MI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL WILL CONTRACT
 AND LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM... BUT EYEWALLS WITH
 THIS LARGE OF A DIAMETER SOMETIMES REMAIN STEADY-STATE. DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z DID NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE CURRENT
 ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT... BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE DEEP
 CONVECTIVE RING REFORMED.
  
 WILMA IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
 MEXICO AND A MORE EXTENSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.
 THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SEEMED TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE UNTIL VERY
 RECENTLY... WHEN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SLOWED. THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD...325/4...AND THE SHORT TERM
 MOTION MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER. 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THIS MORNING'S
 NOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION INDICATE PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
 MORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN CONTAINED IN THE
 SHORT-TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z MODELS... SO THE SLOWER MOTION
 NOW OBSERVED IS NOT SURPRISING. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
 FORECAST THE CENTER OF WILMA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN
 YUCATAN TODAY... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MODELS DO NOT
 AGREE ON HOW LONG WILMA WILL SPEND OVER LAND... AND THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHILE ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...REMAINS TO THE EAST OF MOST OF
 THE MODELS AND KEEPS WILMA ON LAND FOR LESS THAN 18 HOURS.
 OBVIOUSLY... A LONGER STAY OVER YUCATAN COULD CAUSE MORE WEAKENING
 THAN FORECAST...BUT THE OPPOSITE IS ALSO TRUE.
 
 IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 BASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT
 AMONG THE MODELS... THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE
 CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING
 MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY
 GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER...
 THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE... AND BOTH THE
 LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY
 UNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF
 MEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER... IF WILMA DOES
 NOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN... IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN
 FORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA.  
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 20.2N  86.5W   125 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 20.8N  87.0W   135 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.3N  87.4W   105 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 21.8N  87.4W   105 KT
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 22.3N  86.9W   100 KT
  72HR VT     24/1200Z 24.5N  83.5W    90 KT
  96HR VT     25/1200Z 29.5N  77.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     26/1200Z 39.0N  67.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
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