785 
 WTNT44 KNHC 210254
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005
  
 REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z INDICATED
 THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF WILMA HAD RISEN TO 923 MB...AND THE
 MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 130-140 KT. 
 SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVED EYE PRESENTATION
 AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER..ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO
 JUSTIFY AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS 130 KT.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE WILMA
 AROUND 05Z.
 
 WILMA HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST FEW HR...WITH THE
 INITIAL MOTION NOW 325/5.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING INTO A COL AREA
 BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST...WHILE THE STRONGER
 WESTERLIES REMAIN NORTH OF 26N ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE NOAA G4
 JET.  THIS IS A GOOD FORMULA FOR SLOW MOTION...AND ALL MODELS AGREE
 ON THIS FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HR.  HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
 STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
 NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
 TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
 TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE CENTER FORECAST TO
 PASS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
 THIS TRACK ALSO REQUIRES AN EARLIER RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES
 THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE AND A FASTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
 AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT SLOWER THROUGH 96 HR. 
 GIVEN THE RADICAL DEPARTURE FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS IS A LOW
 CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC.  FIRST...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DUE TO PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA.  IF WILMA MOVES AS FAR INLAND AS THE MODELS FORECAST...
 IT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER THAN FORECAST
 ALONG THE REST OF THE TRACK.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE EYE MOVES
 EAST OF THE TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STAY STRONGER THAN
 FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR.  SECOND...ALL AVAILABLE
 DATA SHOWS THAT THE OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED TO THE WEST AS WEAK
 WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGES ON WILMA.  THIS WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT THE
 INTENSIFICATION FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
 A PRECURSOR TO THE SHEAR FORECAST TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE OVER THE
 GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE WILMA TO WEAKEN REGARDLESS
 OF HOW STRONG IT IS AFTER PASSING YUCATAN.  THIRD...WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR COVERING THE
 GULF OF MEXICO.  AS WILMA INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES...THIS AIR
 SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE...AND INDEED THERE HAS
 BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING
 THE PAST 6 HR.  FINALLY...WILMA SHOULD PASS OVER THE WARM LOOP
 CURRENT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE
 LATTER SHOULD AID THE SHEAR-INDUCED WEAKENING.  GIVEN THE
 UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF WILMA MISSES YUCATAN
 THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN SPITE OF ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS IT
 COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
 
 NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REPORTS THAT LARGE
 SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA ARE PROPAGATING TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE
 NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND COULD REACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/0300Z 19.3N  86.0W   130 KT
  12HR VT     21/1200Z 19.9N  86.4W   140 KT
  24HR VT     22/0000Z 20.8N  87.0W   145 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  87.1W   120 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.1N  86.7W   105 KT...OVER WATER
  72HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N  84.5W    95 KT
  96HR VT     25/0000Z 27.5N  79.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     26/0000Z 38.5N  69.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
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