368 
 WTNT44 KNHC 180842
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005
  
 THERE ARE SEVERAL INDICATORS SUGGESTING THAT WILMA IS STRENGTHENING.
 THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 982 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF
 VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES...AND
 THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. T-NUMBERS
 FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT
 WILMA IS A HURRICANE. IN ADDITION...TWO MICROWAVE PASSAGES FROM
 DIFFERENT SATELLITES SHOW AN EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER...WIND
 OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER
 THAN 60 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS OF LIGHT SHEAR AND
 VERY WARM OCEAN...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS MODELS. WILMA
 IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
 CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED
 IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW.
 
 WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DESPITE MODELS
 SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
 THIS FEATURE IS STILL THERE AND STRONG...BLOCKING THE MOTION OF
 WILMA. IT IS STILL FRESH IN MY MEMORY THAT...IN 1998 WITH A SIMILAR
 STEERING PATTERN...ALL MODELS MOVED HURRICANE MITCH NORTHWARD AND
 THE HURRICANE INDEED MOVED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS
 HAVE IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THEN AND THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE
 ANTICYCLONE IN THE GULF IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE TROUGH
 SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...AND THE ATLANTIC
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
 A SLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
 DAYS...TOWARD THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER...
 WILMA WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERLIES AND RECURVATURE WITH AN
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH SHOWS A HURRICANE MOVING EITHER OVER THE
 YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN CUBA AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
 THE FLORIDA PENISULA BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. REMEMBER...THERE IS A
 LARGE VARIABILITY AND LARGE ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 4 AND 5 DAY
 FORECASTS. SO AT THIS TIME STAY TUNE AND MONITOR CLOSELY THE
 PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.  
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0900Z 15.7N  80.0W    60 KT
  12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.8N  80.4W    70 KT
  24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.6N  81.4W    80 KT
  36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.3N  82.4W    90 KT
  48HR VT     20/0600Z 18.6N  84.0W   100 KT
  72HR VT     21/0600Z 21.1N  85.0W   100 KT
  96HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N  84.5W   100 KT
 120HR VT     23/0600Z 26.5N  80.0W    80 KT...INLAND
  
  
 $$