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 498 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 232035
 TCDEP4
 
 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  15
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
 
 Willa's earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have finally
 ended with the erosion of the small inner eye and the outer eye
 becoming better defined in microwave data.  The eye has also warmed
 and become more evident in infrared and visible satellite imagery
 this afternoon.  The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
 flew into Willa earlier today measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
 wind of 109 kt in the southeast quadrant and SFMR winds of around
 100 kt.   Since the aircraft was only able to perform a single pass
 through each quadrant, there is likely some undersampling so the
 initial wind speed is set at 105 kt.
 
 Satellite and the earlier aircraft fixes show that Willa is moving
 a little faster toward the north-northeast, or around 030/9 kt.  The
 hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a
 shortwave trough that is passing near the Baja California peninsula.
 The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in showing that
 the center of Willa will reach the coast of west-central Mexico very
 soon, and then track inland over central Mexico tonight and
 Wednesday.  The track guidance envelope has not changed much this
 cycle, and no significant changes were needed to the previous
 official track.
 
 Although the satellite presentation of Willa has improved somewhat
 this afternoon, little change in strength is expected before the
 hurricane reaches the coast of Mexico.  Increasing southwesterly
 shear and the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will cause
 Willa to rapidly weaken after it moves inland tonight and
 Wednesday.  A 24-h forecast point is provided for continuity, but it
 is unlikely that the low-level circulation will survive its passage
 over the mountainous terrain for that long of a time period.
 
 Key Messages:
 
 1.  Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along the coasts
 of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
 Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
 path of Willa.
 
 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds will reach
 the coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area
 within the next few hours.  Hurricane-force winds will also extend
 inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa
 moves inland.
 
 3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
 flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
 west-central Mexico.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/2100Z 22.2N 106.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
  24H  24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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