957 
 WTPA41 PHFO 180853
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM WALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012014
 1100 PM HST THU JUL 17 2014
  
 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH WALI HAS UNDERGONE SOME 
 FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE CURRENT OVERALL SATELLITE 
 REPRESENTATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE 
 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION  CENTER /LLCC/ IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE 
 SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A RECENT CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP...WITH 0326Z AND 
 0448Z SSMIS IMAGES HELPING WITH CENTER ESTIMATION. LATEST DVORAK 
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5...AND GIVEN THE LITTLE 
 CHANGE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
 MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. 
 
 THE LLCC HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION 
 ESTIMATED TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...325/10 KT. WALI IS BEING 
 STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO IT/S NORTHEAST...AND 
 EVENTUALLY INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE 
 DISTANCE BETWEEN WALI AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY 
 UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE CURRENT NORTHWEST 
 MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST AS THE 
 WEAKENING SYSTEM IS INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE 
 WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT 
 OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT OVERALL HAS CHANGED 
 LITTLE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 
 TO 24 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT NEAR WALI PROVIDING IMPRESSIVE 
 OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE...AND LIMITED OUTFLOW IN THE 
 SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SSTS LIE ALONG THE 
 FORECAST TRACK...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WEAKENING 
 TREND WILL BE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER 
 AIR TO INFILTRATE THE CYCLONE/S CIRCULATION...WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE 
 INDICATING DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
 FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD...AND INDICATES THE 
 LIMITED WINDOW FOR WALI TO INTENSIFY BEFORE ATTAINING REMNANT LOW 
 STATUS BY DAY 3. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE 
 TRENDS PRESENTED BY LGEM AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...IT REMAINS ON THE 
 HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0900Z 14.1N 141.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  18/1800Z 15.1N 142.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  19/0600Z 16.4N 144.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  19/1800Z 17.5N 146.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  20/0600Z 18.3N 148.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  21/0600Z 19.1N 152.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD