Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 000 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 230838
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number  16
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
 
 Cells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near
 Vicente's center, but overall the convective organization has
 continued to deteriorate.  Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed
 maximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of
 the small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt.
 
 WindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a
 little to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial
 motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt.  This motion
 should continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's
 circulation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico,
 and the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the
 Mexican state of Michoacan later today.  Once inland, the tiny
 circulation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous
 terrain.  A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for
 continuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood
 Vicente will have dissipated by that time.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  24H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
 
 001 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 230838
 TCDEP4
 
 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
 
 Willa's overall satellite presentation has continued to slowly
 degrade since the previous advisory, with the exception of a few
 brief attempts at redevelopment of an inner-core ring of deep
 convection. However, dry intrusions from the moat region between the
 larger outer eyewall and the smaller inner core have thus far
 prevented the reformation of an inner eyewall. Satellite intensity
 estimates have been steadily decreasing, and the advisory intensity
 is set at 115 kt, based on a average of the subjective T- and
 CI-numbers from TAFB and a UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate of
 T6.0/115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is
 scheduled to reconnoiter Hurricane Willa later this morning,
 providing more detailed intensity information.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains northward, but at a slower
 forward speed, or 360/04 kt. There are no significant changes to the
 previous track forecast or reasoning. Willa is expected to move
 slowly northward this morning around the western periphery of a
 deep-layer ridge located over central Mexico, and then recurve
 toward the north-northeast and northeast at a faster forward speed
 by this afternoon ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, with
 that motion continuing into this evening and Wednesday. The new NHC
 track forecast is near the eastern edge of the tightly packed
 guidance envelope, near the FSSE and GFS model tracks.
 
 There has been no microwave imagery since around 0100Z to provide
 information on the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). However,
 conventional infrared satellite imagery suggests that the ERC is
 still ongoing based on the appearance of a partial moat or clear
 region in the northern semicircle of the inner core. Willa is
 currently moving over warmer and deeper water as indicated by
 upper-ocean heat content (UOHC) values greater than 50 units. This
 favorable ocean condition is expected to continue along the forecast
 track for another 12 hours or so, which could help to offset the
 weakening rate due to the gradual increase in the southwesterly wind
 shear. By 18 h, or just before landfall, the shear is forecast to
 increase to more than 20 kt and the warm water beneath the hurricane
 is expected to become more shallow, a combination that could lead to
 significant upwelling and weakening. However, the official intensity
 forecast follows the consensus of the various intensity models,
 keeping Willa's intensity near 100 kt at landfall, which is similar
 to the FSSE and HCCA corrected-consensus models. Despite the
 forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
 dangerous major hurricane through landfall, bringing
 life-threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las
 Islas Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico
 later today. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
 dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
 However, deep moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to
 spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas
 where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.
 
 Key Messages:
 
 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected today along the coasts
 of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
 Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
 path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
 protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
 officials.
 
 2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
 area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
 threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
 Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
 mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.
 
 3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
 flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
 west-central Mexico.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0900Z 20.8N 107.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 23.8N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  36H  24/1800Z 25.8N 102.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for VICENTE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman