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 219 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 230249
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  15
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
 
 Although conventional satellite imagery is unimpressive tonight, a
 pair of microwave passes indicate there is probably still a
 low-level circulation remaining with Vicente.  The center is located
 between the main convective band to the south, and sporadic cells
 north of the center.  All of the intensity estimates that I have
 suggest the intensity is no lower than 35 kt, so the initial wind
 speed will stay 35 kt.  Continued northeasterly shear will very
 likely cause Vicente to weaken soon, and this is the solution
 presented by most of the guidance.  The new NHC track forecast shows
 Vicente coming ashore as a tropical depression tomorrow over Mexico,
 most similar to the GFS model.
 
 Vicente is moving northwestward, or 320/11 kt.  The system should
 move a little faster and to the right between the mid-level ridge
 over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern portion of the
 circulation of Willa.  The official track forecast is a bit east of
 the previous one, in line with the latest guidance.  The 24-hour
 position is simply a placeholder to get Vicente inland because the
 cyclone will probably dissipate not long after it reaches land due
 to the high terrain.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0300Z 16.4N 102.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  23/1200Z 17.9N 103.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  24/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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