895 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 222033
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  14
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
 
 Satellite imagery indicates that Vicente continues to lose
 organization.  Deep convection has been sporadic and is generally
 limited to the east and south of the storm's center.  Unfortunately,
 the most recent ASCAT pass missed the center of the system, so we
 are unable to verify if Vicente's circulation is still closed.  Due
 to Vicente's deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial
 intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak
 Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  This intensity
 estimate may be generous, however.
 
 Although sea-surface temperatures near Vicente are quite warm (29
 degrees C), the storm continues to be negatively affected by
 northeasterly vertical wind shear.  Moreover, the cyclone's small
 size has likely made it more susceptible to shear.  Although the
 shear is forecast to weaken slightly over the the next day or so,
 the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Willa and the
 interaction with land is likely to cause the storm to dissipate in
 24-36 hours, or less. The majority of the dynamical guidance models
 dissipate Vicente by tomorrow afternoon and the official forecast
 calls for dissipation by 36 h.  It should be noted that, given the
 current tenuous state of Vicente, the system could dissipate at any
 time.
 
 Vicente's current motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt.  The
 system is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
 while moving between the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
 and the southeastern portion of the circulation of Willa.  The
 official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one
 and roughly in the middle of the model guidance.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/2100Z 15.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch