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 400 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 221445
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
 
 Satellite imagery and microwave data this morning are indicating
 that the early morning re-strengthening of Vicente has ended.  The
 system appears elongated, with the low-level center becoming
 increasingly difficult to locate.  Radar imagery from Acapulco,
 Mexico, does not suggest a well-organized tropical cyclone at this
 time.  The averages of the subjective Dvorak analyses from SAB and
 TAFB support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which may be a little
 generous.
 
 Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the
 cyclone the next couple of days which should support ongoing
 steady weakening. The GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show the cyclone
 dissipating tonight, with some of the other global model guidance
 showing little change in intensity until landfall.  Given the
 current disorganized appearance, a weakening trend appears to be
 the most realistic scenario, with Vicente forecast to weaken to a
 tropical depression before it makes landfall over southwestern
 Mexico in about 36 hours. Regardless of the forecast intensity, the
 primary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern
 and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash
 flooding.
 
 Vicente appears to have begun a turn to the west-northwest, and
 the initial motion is now estimated to be 290/10 kt as the system
 begins to round the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
 over Mexico.  As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of the
 ridge later today and Tuesday, a turn to the northwest and then
 north-northwest is expected.  The latest NHC forecast track is
 similar, and just slightly to the right of the previous one,
 and is near the tightly clustered model guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/1500Z 14.9N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
  48H  24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch/Latto
 
 
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