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 879 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 220836
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  12
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
 
 Vicente's cloud pattern has become better organized during the past
 several hours.  A burst of deep convection has developed near the
 surface center, and a developing curved band with associated cold
 cloud tops of -80C is wrapping around nearly 70 percent of the
 cyclone's circulation.  A SATCON analysis, subjective and objective
 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier 0325
 UTC ISRO ScatSAT-1 overpass support an initial intensity increase to
 40 kt for this advisory.
 
 Despite this temporary strengthening interlude, modest northeasterly
 shear as indicated by the statistical intensity aids and the
 UW-CIMSS shear product should induce weakening soon.  In fact, most
 of the large-scale models agree with dissipation in 36 hours, or
 show the cyclone reaching the Mexico coastline around the 48-hour
 period as a depression.  Although the majority of the models support
 dissipation over water, the NHC forecast will reflect landfall as a
 tropical depression for continuity purposes. Regardless of the
 forecast intensity scenarios, the primary hazard will be heavy
 rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which
 could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/9 kt, within
 southeast to easterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric
 ridge extending westward over southern Mexico from the central Gulf
 of Mexico.  Vicente is expected to round the southwestern to western
 periphery of the aforementioned ridge during the next 36 hours, or
 prior to dissipation.  The track forecast is a little slower than
 the previous advisory, and is based on a blend of the Florida State
 Superensemble and the TVCN multi-model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/0900Z 14.1N  99.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
 
 
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