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 975 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 220234
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  11
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
 
 Vicente's satellite presentation hasn't changed much, with the
 low-level circulation located near the northeastern edge of a rather
 elongated area of deep convection. Satellite classifications remain
 unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on
 continuity with the earlier ASCAT pass. Northeasterly shear is
 expected to continue affecting Vicente, and the global models show
 the cyclone dissipating within the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC
 forecast brings Vicente near the coast of southwestern Mexico as a
 depression in 36 hours and inland as a remnant low by 48 hours, but
 it wouldn't be surprising if the small cyclone dissipated sooner.
 Regardless of the eventual details of Vicente's demise, the main
 hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and
 southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash
 flooding.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains south of due west or 260/09.
 Vicente should be steered around the southwestern and western edge
 of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico through
 dissipation. The spread in the model trackers remains quite large,
 as they are having difficulty tracking the small cyclone. For this
 cycle, the new NHC forecast has been adjusted to the left of the
 previous one through 12 to 24 hours due to the initial position and
 motion. After that time, the NHC track generally follows a blend of
 the previous official forecast and the fields from the latest global
 models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/0300Z 13.9N  98.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  22/1200Z 14.3N  99.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  23/0000Z 15.7N 101.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  23/1200Z 17.5N 103.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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