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 333 
 WTPZ23 KNHC 211442
 TCMEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018
 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
  
 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
  
 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
 PROGRESS OF VICENTE.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  96.8W AT 21/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
 34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  96.8W AT 21/1500Z
 AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  96.4W
  
 FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.2N  98.1W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.4N  99.8W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  96.8W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 
 
 334 
 WTPZ24 KNHC 211442
 TCMEP4
 
 HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
 OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN... AND A TROPICAL
 STORM
 WATCH FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF SAN BLAS.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
 BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
 WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
 DANGEROUS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
 ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
 MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY... AND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
 COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
 MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.
 
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
 64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
 50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z
 AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.6W
 
 FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 106.7W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
 
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