329 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 211442
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
 
 Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone, and its cloud pattern
 consists of a small Central Dense Overcast with disorganized
 convection over the southwestern portion of the circulation.  There
 is little evidence of banding features at this time.  The current
 intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak
 estimates from both TAFB and SAB.  North-northeasterly vertical
 shear is likely to limit intensification during the next couple of
 days.  Vicente should quickly dissipate when it interacts with the
 land mass of Mexico by mid-week.
 
 Satellite fixes and images from the Puerto Angel, Mexico radar
 indicate that the storm is still moving a little south of west,
 and the motion estimate continues to be 255/8 kt.  There has been
 little change in the track forecast or the reasoning behind it.
 Vicente should gradually turn toward the west and northwest while
 moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
 pressure area.  The official track forecast is similar to the
 previous one and close to the multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/1500Z 14.4N  96.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  22/0000Z 14.2N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  22/1200Z 14.4N  99.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch