Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 988 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 210857
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
 
 Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone as evidenced by ASCAT passes
 around 03Z-04Z, which showed a very small but well-defined
 circulation, with peak wind speed values of 38 kt. Those peak winds
 were likely undersampled given the small radius of maximum winds of
 only 10-15 nmi. Based on Vicente's small size and the ASCAT wind
 data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which
 above all of the other the intensity estimates, and lies closest to
 the UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. Little change in intensity is
 forecast due to moderate northerly shear expected to affect the
 cyclone throughout the forecast period, along with Vicente's
 proximity to land and occasional dry intrusions. Rapid weakening
 and dissipation are expected after landfall due to the
 mountainous terrain of Mexico.
 
 The initial motion is now west-southwestward or 255/08 kt. Vicente
 is expected to move westward later today and then turn toward the
 west-northwest  on Monday and northwest on Tuesday when the cyclone
 will come under the influence of the Hurricane Willa's larger
 circulation.  Landfall is expected to occur along the southwestern
 coast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday. The latest NHC model guidance
 is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, and only minor
 forward speed changes were required, except for a more rightward
 shift in the track at 72 hours resulting in landfall.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/0900Z 14.5N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 14.3N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 14.4N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND SWRN MEXICO
  96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for VICENTE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman