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 335 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 210231
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018
 
 Vicente consists of a tight but mostly exposed low-level swirl
 producing intermittent bursts of deep convection.  We have expected
 an imminent westward or west-southwestward turn for the past 24
 hours now, but it still hasn't happened, and the initial motion
 estimate is a little north of due west (280/6 kt). All of the
 generally best performing track models, except the UKMET, forecast
 that a turn toward the west-southwest should occur at any time, and
 even that model forecasts that a turn toward the due west is
 imminent. The NHC forecast dutifully follows the model guidance, but
 is a little north of the model consensus for the first 24 hours,
 based on recent trends. Beyond that time, a turn toward the
 west-northwest or northwest is still anticipated, assuming Vicente
 is steered by the southerly flow on the outer fringes of the much
 larger Willa to its west, and the NHC forecast closely follows the
 HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. A few members of the ECMWF and GFS
 ensembles do not show the two cyclones interacting, resulting in a
 significantly different and much farther west track for Vicente.
 While this scenario does not seem likely at this point, it does
 illustrate that the uncertainty in the track forecast has increased
 since earlier today.
 
 The intensity of Vicente is still estimated at 45 kt, based on
 earlier ASCAT data and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. While the small size
 of Vicente could make it susceptible to short-term swings in
 intensity that are very difficult to predict, the intensity
 guidance generally forecasts little change in the maximum winds
 over the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, close proximity to land and
 interaction with Willa is expected to cause Vicente to weaken and
 eventually dissipate. No changes of note were made to the
 intensity forecast in this advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/0300Z 14.8N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  21/1200Z 14.4N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  22/0000Z 14.3N  97.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  22/1200Z 14.9N  99.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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