783 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 201444
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018
 
 Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data continue to
 reveal that Vicente is an unusually small tropical cyclone. Data
 show a ring of convection defining the center with most of the
 thunderstorm activity on the southwestern portion of the
 circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial
 intensity of 35 kt. The cyclone is not in the best environment for
 intensification given that the circulation has been interacting with
 land, however the shear is not high, and the cyclone is over 29
 degree Celsius water. Once the circulation separates from land,
 some slight strengthening is then forecast. After that time, Vicente
 will be approaching the much larger circulation of strengthening
 Tropical Cyclone Willa, and the most likely scenario is that at
 least by 96 hours, Vicente will become absorbed within an outer band
 of Willa. This is the same scenario which occurred with Hurricane
 John and Tropical Storm Ileana back in August this year.
 
 Vicente is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 6 kt. The nose
 of a strong subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify and expand
 westward. This flow pattern should force Vicente to move on a west
 to west-southwest track for about 36 hours. Then as the cyclone
 reaches the southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern
 portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the
 northwest until it becomes absorbed.  It is interesting to note that
 unanimously, the track guidance forces Vicente to acquire a
 west-southwesterly component due to the expansion of the ridge,
 increasing the confidence in the the track forecast during the next
 2 to 3 days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/1500Z 14.3N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  21/0000Z 14.2N  94.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  21/1200Z 13.5N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  22/0000Z 13.3N  98.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 120H  25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILLA
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila