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 490 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 200836
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018
 
 Radar data from Guatemala indicate that Vicente remains a very small
 but well-defined tropical cyclone, which has occasionally exhibited
 an eye-like feature. However, convection has waned during the past
 few hours, so it is difficult to accurately ascertain the intensity
 of such a tiny storm since small systems like this can spin up and
 spin down very quickly owing to minor convective fluctuations. For
 now, it is assumed that Vicente is still a tropical storm based on
 satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
 41 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON; the most recent ADT value, however, was
 T2.2/32 kt.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. Over the last 18 hours, it
 appears that Vicente's track has been doing some coastal hugging.
 That being said, the tropical storm is expected to turn more
 westward during the next 12 h and emerge over the open Gulf of
 Tehuantepec where a modest gap wind event is forecast to turn the
 cyclone southwestward by this evening. The latest 00Z model guidance
 is surprisingly in very good agreement on the development of this
 unusual track scenario. By 36-48 hours, a gradual turn toward the
 west is expected, followed by a motion toward the northwest on days
 3-5 as the small cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of a
 deep-layer ridge located over the Gulf of Mexico and central Mexico.
 Assuming Vicente survives the next 96 hours, on day 5 the tropical
 cyclone is expected to come under the influence of the new and much
 larger Tropical Depression 24-E -- currently located about 700 nmi
 to the west -- and possibly become absorbed or forced inland over
 southwestern Mexico by that system. The new NHC forecast was nudged
 a little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and
 FSSE corrected consensus models.
 
 Vertical shear is forecast to be less than 10 kt and the mid-level
 moisture is expected to be high with humidity values of more than 75
 percent for the next 36 hours. This should allow for some gradual
 strengthening to occur during that time despite Vicente's proximity
 to land. By 48 hours and beyond, however, northerly shear is
 expected to increase across the small cyclone, which should act to
 cap the intensification process and induce some gradual weakening
 by 96h. On day 5, the shear is forecast to exceed 20 kt, due in
 large part to the expected strong outflow from a strengthening
 TD-24E, resulting in significant weakening or even dissipation of
 Vicente. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly
 below the previous forecast, and lies close to an average of the
 HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models.
 
 Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight
 and on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible
 life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions
 southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/0900Z 14.0N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  20/1800Z 14.1N  93.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  21/0600Z 13.5N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  21/1800Z 12.9N  97.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  22/0600Z 13.1N  98.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  23/0600Z 15.2N 101.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  24/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  25/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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