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 949 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 200236
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018
 
 Radar imagery from Guatemala has been extremely helpful in tracking
 the center of Vicente, especially after sunset.  The low-level
 center of the small tropical storm appears to have accelerated
 northwestward during the past couple of hours, away from its rapidly
 decaying central dense overcast, and is now almost entirely
 exposed. Analysis from UW-CIMSS indicates that 10-15 knots of
 northwesterly shear is currently affecting Vicente, and this appears
 to have been enough to significantly disrupt the organization of the
 cyclone, probably due to its small size.  The initial intensity has
 been held at 35 kt based on objective and subjective satellite
 estimates at 00Z, but given the tiny size of Vicente and its
 large swings in organization since early this morning, its unclear
 how representative these estimates are of the true maximum winds.
 
 Vicente is now moving west-northwestward, or 300/3 kt, and all of
 the guidance indicates that it will turn westward overnight.  After
 that time, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause
 the cyclone to turn southwestward, especially if Vicente remains
 weak and shallow.  A few models even indicate the tropical storm
 could dissipate entirely as it interacts with these winds. Assuming
 the cyclone makes it past the Gulf of Tehuantepec intact, Vicente
 should turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest after about
 48 h as it gets steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge over
 Mexico and another tropical cyclone that will likely develop off the
 coast of Mexico by that time.  The NHC forecast has been shifted a
 little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and
 FSSE aids, but is generally similar to the previous advisory.
 
 Due in part to the rapid decline in Vicente's organization this
 evening, the intensity forecast has been adjusted lower at most
 forecast hours for the first 48 h of the forecast, but is still
 generally higher than the model consensus. Most of the intensity
 guidance still calls for intensification, especially between 36 h
 and 72 h, when Vicente should be past the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and
 the shear should remain generally low. By the end of the forecast
 period, the global models indicate that Vicente will interact with a
 much larger tropical cyclone to its west, which should cause Vicente
 to weaken and possibly dissipate, though a 120 h point is still
 carried in this forecast for continuity purposes.
 
 Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight
 and on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible
 life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El
 Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
 days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/0300Z 13.7N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  20/1200Z 13.7N  93.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  21/0000Z 13.3N  94.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  21/1200Z 12.5N  95.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  22/0000Z 12.3N  97.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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