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 WTPZ43 KNHC 192036
 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018
 Although tiny, the cyclone continues to display well-defined
 convective banding.  The system's quick formation and small size
 make it difficult to have high confidence in its current intensity,
 and the various subjective and objective estimates range from
 T1.8/28 kt from the ADT to T3.0/45 kt from SAB.  As a compromise,
 the intensity is set at 35 kt, which is closest to the TAFB estimate
 and the most recent SATCON number, and the depression is upgraded to
 Tropical Storm Vicente.
 As noted this morning, warm waters and low shear should induce
 further strengthening during the next 48 hours.  On one hand, this
 intensification could be more than what is being indicated by the
 models, since small systems can have a tendency to gain strength
 quickly.  On the other hand, Vicente will be interacting with a Gulf
 of Tehuantepec gap wind event during the next 48 hours, and the
 storm could end up ingesting some drier, more stable air into its
 circulation.  The NHC intensity forecast favors the former scenario
 and is a little above the guidance envelope for the first 2-3 days.
 After day 3, an increase in shear, interaction with another possible
 tropical cyclone to the west, and possible interaction with land
 could all conspire to arrest the intensification trend, and
 weakening is expected by the end of the forecast period.  It is also
 possible that Vicente could dissipate before the end of the 5-day
 period.  This scenario is reminiscent of, and has similarities to,
 the interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Hurricane John back in
 early August.
 Vicente is moving very slowly northwestward, or 305/2 kt.  The
 track models are indicating that the ongoing gap winds over the Gulf
 of Tehuantepec may have a greater influence of Vicente than
 previously thought, forcing the storm to turn west-southwestward in
 the next 24-48 hours.  After 48 hours, Vicente should gradually
 enter the flow between mid-level ridging over Mexico and low
 pressure west of Mexico, causing it to turn back to the west and
 northwest on days 3 through 5.  The new NHC track forecast is not
 too different from the morning forecast during that period, and it's
 closest to the paths shown by the GFS, HCCA, and FSSE guidance,
 which would bring the center close to the coast of Mexico later in
 the forecast period. There are considerable speed differences,
 however, and the NHC forecast splits the difference between the fast
 ECMWF solution and the slow GFS scenario.
 Even though Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast
 tonight and on Saturday, heavy rainfall, with possible
 life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El
 Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
 INIT  19/2100Z 13.3N  92.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 13.6N  93.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 13.3N  94.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 12.9N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 12.7N  96.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  22/1800Z 13.7N  99.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 Forecaster Berg
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