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 532 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 191457
 TCDEP3
  
 Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E Discussion Number   1
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018
  
 Two distinct areas of low pressure formed late yesterday within a
 sprawling area of disturbed weather that stretched from Central
 America westward over the eastern Pacific waters south of Mexico.
 The easternmost low south of Guatemala is small and has spun up
 quickly, with deep convection continuing to burst near the center of
 circulation.  Microwave data, first-light visible images, and
 valuable radar data from Guatemala also show a tight core and
 increasing convective bands.  Maximum winds are set at 30 kt,
 slightly above last evening's ASCAT pass and a T1.5 Dvorak
 classification from TAFB, given the system's well-developed
 structure.
  
 The depression is located over warm waters (28-29 degrees Celsius)
 and in a light-shear environment.  These conditions should support
 further strengthening, and the depression's small size may allow for
 intensification higher than what is indicated by the intensity
 models.  For this first advisory, the NHC intensity forecast is near
 the top end of the guidance envelope and levels off the maximum
 winds in 3-5 days when there could be an increase in shear.
  
 Since the low formed recently, the depression's current motion is
 uncertain. However, microwave fixes indicate that it hasn't moved
 much since last evening, and the initial motion estimate is slowly
 west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt.  A strong mid-level ridge spanning
 across the Gulf of Mexico and northern Mexico should steer the
 cyclone generally westward for the next 3 days or so.  After day 3,
 the ridge is expected to retreat eastward a bit, and the cyclone
 should begin to turn northwestward between the ridge and another
 low pressure system to the west.  The track models are in good
 agreement on this general scenario, but there is not agreement on
 how close the system could get to the coast of Mexico during the
 forecast period.  Therefore, interests along the southern and
 southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
 system during the next few days.  Regardless of how close it gets
 to the coast, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash
 flooding, is expected over portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
 southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/1500Z 13.3N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  20/0000Z 13.7N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  20/1200Z 13.5N  94.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  21/0000Z 13.3N  94.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  21/1200Z 13.3N  96.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  22/1200Z 13.8N  99.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
  
 
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