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 490 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 032044
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014
 
 
 Earlier today it appeared that Vance was beginning to weaken.
 However, that trend has ended and recent satellite images suggest
 that the hurricane is a little better organized.  The eye is again
 evident in satellite images and the inner core of the cyclone is
 well intact.  The initial intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt,
 using a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
 The hurricane is now moving northward at about 10 kt located on
 the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of
 Mexico.  Water vapor images show a high amplitude trough digging to
 the west of Vance.  This feature is expected to steer the system
 north-northeastward during the next couple of days, bringing a much
 weaker cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 2 to 3 days.
 
 Even though Vance has strengthened some this afternoon, steady or
 even rapid weakening is still anticipated due to a pronounced
 increase in southwesterly shear and drier air.  In fact, the SHIPS
 model shows extremely hostile shear conditions with values near 30
 kt tonight and more than 40 kt tomorrow.  The NHC intensity forecast
 is the same as the previous one and lies very close to the model
 consensus.  The current forecast calls for Vance to become a
 tropical depression offshore. However, if Vance does not begin to
 weaken soon, then the chances of tropical storm conditions reaching
 the coast will increase.
 
 Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward
 across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the
 next several days.  This is likely to produce heavy rains over
 portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/2100Z 16.4N 110.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  04/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  04/1800Z 19.6N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  05/0600Z 21.4N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  05/1800Z 23.4N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  06/1800Z 25.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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