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 306 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 030836
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
 100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014
 
 Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity,
 with very cold-topped inner core convection.  Dvorak intensity
 estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, and the initial
 intensity is held at that value as well.  Vance's upper-level
 outflow is becoming slightly impeded over its southwest quadrant,
 suggesting that southwesterly shear over the hurricane is already
 beginning to increase.  The window of opportunity for additional
 strengthening is quickly closing, since the SHIPS model indicates
 the vertical shear increasing to 24 kt in 12 hours and to 30 kt in
 24 hours.  The NHC forecast shows only a slight increase in
 strength today, with a weakening trend beginning in 12-24 hours,
 and is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus.
 Although the track forecast brings the cyclone near the coast by
 72 hours, the upper-level environment is expected to be extremely
 hostile and the system should be reduced to remnant low or even
 completely dissipate by that time.
 
 There has been a little deceleration and the motion is now 320/12
 kt.  Over the next day or two, Vance should recurve around the
 western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge.  The cyclone is
 then likely to move north-northeastward between the ridge and a
 trough over extreme northwestern Mexico.  By the end of the
 forecast period, the motion could become erratic since the
 circulation will probably become quite shallow and be steered by
 the weaker low-level flow.  The official track forecast is very
 similar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model
 consensus.
 
 Some additional adjustments to the wind radii were done based on
 ASCAT data.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 14.5N 110.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 17.9N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 21.4N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  06/0600Z 23.2N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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