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 210 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 021437
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
 700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014
 
 Satellite images show that Vance has continued to strengthen this
 morning.  The cyclone has a cold cloud-topped CDO, with some
 overshooting tops near the center, surrounded by banding features.
 Objective ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS now support an intensity of 70
 kt, which makes the system a hurricane.  Vance has fairly strong
 upper-level outflow over all but the eastern portion of the
 circulation.  Additional strengthening is likely during the next 24
 hours, and the official intensity forecast is near the high end of
 the numerical guidance in the short term.  By 36 hours, the
 dynamical guidance shows a large increase in southwesterly shear due
 to strong upper-level winds north of 15N latitude, and this should
 halt any additional strengthening.  Vance is expected to weaken
 rapidly on days 2 and 3 of the forecast period, and is likely to
 degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by day 4.  This is
 similar to the previous official wind speed forecast.
 
 Latest center fixes indicate that the hurricane is now moving
 northwestward, or 310/13 kt.  Vance is expected to round the
 western periphery of a mid-level ridge and turn northward to
 north-northeastward toward a trough over the southwestern United
 States during the next couple of days.  By late in the forecast
 period, the cyclone is likely to become a shallow system that will
 turn to the left within the weaker low-level flow.  The NHC track
 forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance
 envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/1500Z 11.9N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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