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 687 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 011447
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014
 
 The structure of Vance continues to improve, albeit slowly.  The
 first-light visible images show that the center is in the northern
 portion of the central dense overcast, with recent microwave data
 suggesting the development of a more solid inner core.  A blend of
 the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support raising
 the initial wind speed to 40 kt.  Vance has ample opportunity to
 strengthen for about the next 2 days while it remains over very warm
 waters with low shear conditions.  Little change is made to the
 forecast intensity during that time, which is just a bit higher than
 the model consensus.  Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase
 markedly, with rather hostile conditions expected while the cyclone
 approaches Mexico.  Guidance has trended sharply downward at days
 3-5, and the latest NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction.
 
 Vance is moving about 280/6 kt.  The cyclone is expected to move
 much faster toward the west-northwest later today, and then move
 northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of 110W by
 day 2. Similar to the last advisory, the track guidance remains
 tightly clustered but has shifted westward during the first 2 days.
 Thus, the updated NHC track forecast is a little left of the
 previous one through 48 hours. After that time, the mid-level trough
 is expected to steer Vance to the north and north-northeast on days
 3 and 4. Guidance is coming into better agreement on this solution,
 with the 06z GFS having trended left of its 00z solution, and no
 changes were made to the official NHC forecast.  While the latest
 NHC prediction still shows Vance moving onshore of the coast of
 Mexico around day 5, it is a distinct possibility that the
 low-level center will remain offshore due to the cyclone decoupling
 from the mid-level flow.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/1500Z  9.6N 103.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 10.2N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  03/0000Z 12.5N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  03/1200Z 14.3N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  04/1200Z 18.1N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  05/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  06/1200Z 23.5N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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