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 364 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 010844
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014
 
 Vance's structure has been improving since the last advisory.  A
 cluster of deep convection has developed near the center, and more
 defined curved bands are forming on the outer edges of the
 circulation.  The maximum winds are held at 35 kt based on a
 consensus of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.
 
 The first three days of the forecast are fairly straightforward.
 Vance is expected to turn west-northwestward later today,
 accelerate northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of
 110W by day 2, and curve toward the north on day 3.  The track
 guidance remains tightly clustered but has shifted westward after
 36 hours.  Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is a little
 left of the previous one from 36 to 72 hours.  While Vance turns
 northward, light vertical shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and
 a moistening mid-level troposphere should allow the storm to reach
 hurricane strength in 2-3 days.  This part of the forecast closely
 follows the SHIPS, HWRF, and Florida State Superensemble guidance.
 
 The forecast is a little more complex after day 3.  Once Vance
 begins to recurve, it will encounter southwesterly shear that
 increases from 20-25 kt on day 3 to well over 40 kt on days 4 and
 5.  This environment is likely to cause the cyclone to decouple,
 with the mid-level circulation being sheared off toward Mexico and
 the low-level circulation being left behind south of the Baja
 California peninsula.  While the operational GFS brings Vance to
 the coast of Mexico in 96 hours, the parallel run of GFS and the
 ECMWF model have much slower and weaker solutions and do not bring
 the surface center to the Mexican coast.  As additional support for
 this scenario, most of the GFS and European ensemble members show
 Vance lingering or even dissipating offshore.  At this time, the
 operational GFS is considered an outlier solution, and the NHC
 track forecast is closer to a blend of the European and parallel
 GFS models.  Due to the shear, Vance is expected to weaken rapidly
 after day 3, possibly becoming a remnant low near or offshore the
 coast of Mexico by day 5.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0900Z  9.4N 102.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z  9.7N 104.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 10.5N 106.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 11.6N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 13.2N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 17.1N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 20.5N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  06/0600Z 23.5N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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