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 613 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 301446
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
 800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014
 
 The depression has become a little better organized with a more
 prominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However,
 recent microwave images show that the center remains on the
 southwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that
 southwesterly shear continues to affect the depression.  Although
 the overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity
 estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will
 conservatively remain 30 kt.
 
 Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and
 dry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for
 the next day or two.  As a result, the latest model guidance does
 not show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the
 trend of showing only slow intensification.  After that time, the
 global models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an
 increase in moisture. These conditions should promote more
 significant strengthening at longer ranges.  The NHC forecast is
 closest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model
 consensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment.
 Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional
 strengthening after that time.
 
 The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the
 previous estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity,
 leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt.
 The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and
 southwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge
 builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is
 forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should
 cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward
 in 48 to 72 hours.  After that time, the tropical cyclone is
 forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches
 the Baja California peninsula.  The official NHC forecast is a
 little faster than the consensus after accounting for the
 unrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the
 previous forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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