529 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 290851
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
 200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016
 
 Despite about 25 kt of west-southwesterly shear, a burst of deep
 convection which developed around 0100 UTC has persisted, and
 Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB increased to T3.5/55 kt
 and T2.0/30 kt, respectively.  Based on these numbers, the initial
 intensity is held at 45 kt.  Vertical shear is expected to turn
 westerly and increase to between 30 and 50 kt during the next couple
 of days.  Given Ulika's small size, it will be no match for this
 type of shear and should therefore weaken very quickly.  The NHC
 intensity forecast decays the system very similarly to what is
 shown by the LGEM model.  Based on the latest global model fields,
 Ulika is likely to dissipate by day 3, if not sooner.
 
 Ulika has turned north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt, around the
 eastern side of a mid-level low located near 19N144W.  The cyclone
 is expected to continue turning counterclockwise around this
 feature today and tonight, and it should then be moving westward by
 Friday when it is steered by lower-level trade wind flow.  The
 updated NHC track forecast is a little west and south of the
 previous forecast, but that is primarily due to an adjustment of
 the initial position.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/0900Z 16.0N 139.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  29/1800Z 16.7N 139.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  30/0600Z 17.4N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  30/1800Z 17.6N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  01/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg