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 904 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 282031
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
 200 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016
 
 Ulika's cloud pattern consists of a small area of deep convection
 near the estimated center, with limited or no banding features.
 The current intensity estimate has been reduced to 50 kt which is a
 blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Vertical shear,
 mainly due to westerly upper-level flow associated with a broad
 trough over the east-central Pacific, is predicted by the global
 models to increase substantially over the next couple of days.
 This, along with dry mid-tropospheric air, should cause steady
 weakening and Ulika is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical
 remnant low in 48 hours or less.
 
 Ulika is turning gradually to the left, and the initial motion is
 now estimated to be 010/6.  As long as it maintains some vertical
 depth, the small circulation of the tropical cyclone should
 continue to rotate counter-clockwise around a mid-level low to its
 west.  Assuming that the system becomes a shallow cyclone in 36 to
 48 hours, it should move generally westward in the low-level flow
 by that time.  The official forecast is very similar to the
 previous one and lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/2100Z 15.1N 138.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 16.0N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 16.9N 139.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 17.4N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  30/1800Z 17.6N 141.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  01/1800Z 17.7N 144.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain
 
 
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