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 590 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 280233
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016
 
 Ulika continues to maintain a small but well organized central dense
 overcast.  Geostationary satellite images indicate that the inner
 core of the cyclone has become a little better organized during the
 last several hours, and there are some hints of an eye feature in
 the imagery.  An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago revealed
 maximum winds in the 50 to 55 kt range.  Based on that data and a
 Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial wind speed is increased
 to 55 kt.  Ulika is expected to remain in generally favorable
 environmental conditions for another 12 to 24 hours, and the system
 could be near hurricane strength overnight and early Wednesday.
 Beyond that time, a significant increase in southwesterly or
 westerly shear should cause a steady weakening trend.  Ulika is
 forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days, but some of the
 models suggest that the system could open up into a trough by then.
 This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one.
 
 Ulika is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a
 mid- to upper-level low.  The upper low is expected to move slowly
 westward, which should cause the storm to turn northward on
 Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday.  After that time, Ulika
 is expected to become a shallow cyclone, and it will likely turn
 west-northwestward or westward in the low-level trade wind flow.
 The models are in fair agreement on this overall scenario, and only
 a small shift to the right was made in the new NHC track forecast.
 This prediction is in best agreement with the latest consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0300Z 13.3N 139.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 14.2N 138.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 15.1N 138.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 139.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  01/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  02/0000Z 17.7N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  03/0000Z 17.9N 150.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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