103
WTPA42 PHFO 301431
TCDCP2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192016
500 AM HST FRI SEP 30 2016
With a jet stream over the cyclone, very strong vertical wind shear
is creating a hostile environment. A couple of cumulonimbus clouds
have formed north of the cyclone in the past several hours, but deep
organized convection has been absent since late Wednesday night. The
low-level circulation center has been difficult to locate on either
GOES-15 or microwave data. Ulika is now deemed to be a post-tropical
remnant low. I have kept the initial intensity at 30 kt for this
advisory. The remnant low will be steered by a ridge to the
northwest in the lower troposphere until it opens up into a trough
by Saturday evening.
This will be the last discussion issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the
Post-Tropical Cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP, WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/HSFNP.php.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 18.2N 142.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 01/0000Z 18.4N 144.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1200Z 18.5N 146.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Donaldson
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