576 
 WTPA42 PHFO 300239
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192016
 500 PM HST THU SEP 29 2016
  
 The well-defined low-level circulation center of Ulika has been
 exposed to the south and southwest of limited deep convection for
 most of the time since the previous advisory, but modest new
 convection has more recently developed close to the center, despite
 strong westerly shear on the order of 30-40 kt. Subjective Dvorak
 current intensity estimates have been trending lower, and range from
 too weak to classify from SAB to 1.5/25 kt from HFO/GTW, while ADT
 has diminished to 2.2/32 kt. The initial intensity of 35 kt used for
 this advisory is primarily based on a pair of mid-morning ASCAT
 passes that indicated winds of at least 35 kt, and the fact that the
 satellite presentation has changed little since.  
 
 The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 305/09 kt, with
 Ulika being steered toward the northwest by the counter-
 clockwise flow around a mid-level low centered to the northwest.
 Although isolated small thunderstorm cells have briefly developed
 near the center of Ulika this afternoon, persistent deep convection
 is not expected over the center as shear is forecast to further
 increase the next 2 days. The cyclone is therefore expected to
 become increasingly shallow over the next 12 to 24 hours, and
 spin-down to a remnant low is expected to occur soon. 
 
 As the system weakens, the primary steering mechanism will become a
 surface high far to the north, which will drive the system toward
 the west until dissipation occurs. The official track forecast
 closely follows the previous, and most closely follows the GFEX
 model blend. Trends presented by SHIPS/LGEM were closely followed
 for the intensity forecast, while HWFI/GHMI (and therefore IVCN)
 were disregarded due to an unrealistic intensification trend
 indicated on days 2 and 3. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/0300Z 17.7N 141.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 18.3N 142.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  01/0000Z 18.6N 144.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  01/1200Z 18.6N 146.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  02/0000Z 18.6N 149.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard