018 
 WTPA41 PHFO 291456
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022009
 500 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2009
 
 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C HAS 
 PERSISTED...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...OVERNIGHT. 
 HOWEVER...ITS SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS NOT IMPROVED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY 
 INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. THE ESTIMATED 
 CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD TOPS WERE IN EXCESS OF 50 THOUSAND FEET. THE 
 OUTFLOW ALOFT DENOTED BY THE CIRRUS WAS ALSO INDICATIVE OF AN 
 UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS 
 ESTIMATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF 
 TWO-C WAS ABOUT 12 KT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE 
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGED FROM 2.0 TO 2.5. THEREFORE...TWO-C/S 
 INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 TWO-C CONTINUES OVER THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL NORTH 
 PACIFIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THERE HAS 
 BEEN CONFLICTING INFORMATION ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE LLCC. 
 MOST FIX AGENCIES APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING A CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. 
 HOWEVER...LOOPS OF MTSAT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM LAST 
 EVENING...A QUIKSCAT SWATH AROUND 0630 UTC AND A 0917 UTC AMSU PASS 
 INDICATED THE LLCC WAS DISPLACED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST OF 
 MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR 
 ESTIMATE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. 
  
 THE PRESENT MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY 
 WESTWARD...OR 270/6. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND 
 A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG LATITUDE 16N. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP 
 TWO-C MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN 
 TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WATER 
 VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BREAK IN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF 
 THE DATELINE. THEREFORE...TWO-C IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS FORWARD 
 MOTION WITH A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY 
 NIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP 
 DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE DATELINE FROM MONDAY THROUGH 
 WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY 
 AGREE ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN OF TWO-C BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... 
 THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE FORECAST TRACKS AT 
 THAT TIME. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE 
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT ACCELERATION 
 AND SHIFT TO THE LEFT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD 
 MOTION BY DAY 2...WHEN THE NORTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE. 
 THE GUIDANCE NOW STRONGLY SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AN ACCELERATION OF 
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST FROM DAY 4 TO 5...SO 
 HAVE MOVED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FASTER AT THAT TIME. NOTE THAT EVEN 
 IF TWO-C EVENTUALLY BECOMES A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LLCC...THE BAMS 
 AND BAMM INDICATE THE RECURVATURE WILL STILL OCCUR BY DAY 3 OR 4.
  
 TWO-C REMAINS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS. THE 
 LATEST OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM CIRA INDICATES THE FORECAST 
 TRACK IS ALSO OVER RELATIVELY DEEP WARM WATER. THE ATMOSPHERIC 
 ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TWO-C APPEARS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT 
 INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME... 
 TWO-C IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE 
 SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. BASED ON 
 THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE...HAVE ONLY ALLOWED THE TROPICAL 
 DEPRESSION TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH DAY 5. NOTE 
 THAT THE GFDL MODEL HINTS TWO-C MAY ACTUALLY INTENSIFY AFTER 
 RECURVATURE. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST 
 REMAINS VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER PERIODS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/1500Z 14.5N 179.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.8N 179.4E    35 KT
  24HR VT     30/1200Z 15.2N 177.6E    35 KT
  36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.8N 175.9E    35 KT
  48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.6N 174.9E    35 KT
  72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.2N 174.2E    35 KT
  96HR VT     02/1200Z 21.2N 175.2E    35 KT
 120HR VT     03/1200Z 25.8N 176.4E    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON