615 
 WTPA41 PHFO 290929 CCA
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022009
 1100 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2009
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES OVER THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE 
 NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. 
 EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE MTSAT INDICATED THE 
 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THE CLOUD 
 SYSTEM CENTER. THEREFORE...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE CURRENT 
 LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER AT THIS TIME. MICROWAVE DATA 
 FROM 0606 UTC AMSU AND 0625 UTC SSMI PASSES APPEAR TO INDICATE THE 
 LLCC MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE 0600 UTC POSITION USED FOR THIS 
 PACKAGE. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ESTIMATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND 
 SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF TWO-C WAS ABOUT 8 KT FROM DUE SOUTH. THIS 
 WOULD SUPPORT THE FACT THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARED TO BE 
 DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. NOTE 
 THAT BOTH MICROWAVE IMAGES APPEAR TO HAVE A TRANSIENT HOLE IN THE 
 IMAGERY THAT IS NORTHEAST OF THE ACTUAL LLCC. 
 
 DESPITE THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF TWO-C/S CENTER...THE OVERALL 
 APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE 
 IT IS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. DEEP CONVECTION WITH 
 CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD TOPS IN EXCESS OF 50 THOUSAND FEET CONTINUES THIS 
 EVENING. THE OUTFLOW ALOFT DENOTED BY THE CIRRUS WAS ALSO INDICATIVE 
 OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE SYSTEM. WITH THE PERSISTENT 
 DEEP CONVECTION...THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS 
 RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 2.0. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT 
 AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 THE PRESENT MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY 
 WESTWARD...OR 280/6. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND 
 A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WATER 
 VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THERE IS A BREAK IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 
 RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TWO-C MOVING 
 AT APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TRANSLATION SPEED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE 
 GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP DOWN FROM 
 THE NORTH ALONG THE DATELINE. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE 
 CONTINUES TO GENERALLY AGREE ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN OF TWO-C BY 
 DAY 2 OR 3. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN 
 THE FORECAST TRACKS AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS 
 CLOSELY THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE LATEST TRACK WAS 
 SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...WHICH WAS NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE 
 MODELS. AGAIN...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THIS PRESUMES THE 
 SYSTEM WILL NOT BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO QUICKLY RECURVE.
  
 TWO-C REMAINS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS. THE 
 LATEST OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM CIRA INDICATES THE FORECAST 
 TRACK IS ALSO OVER RELATIVELY DEEP WARM WATER. THE ATMOSPHERIC 
 ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TWO-C IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION 
 FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER 
 INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW 
 APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE...WE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS 
 FORECAST INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 4...BUT KEPT THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL 
 STORM ON DAY 5.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0900Z 15.0N 178.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.1N 179.3W    30 KT
  24HR VT     30/0600Z 15.4N 179.1E    35 KT
  36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.8N 177.7E    40 KT
  48HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N 176.2E    40 KT
  72HR VT     01/0600Z 17.9N 174.7E    35 KT
  96HR VT     02/0600Z 19.9N 174.7E    35 KT
 120HR VT     03/0600Z 22.3N 175.7E    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON