522 
 WTNT42 KNHC 230834
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014
 
 The small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep
 convection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates
 that the convection is not particularly well organized.  An AMSR2
 image from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing
 definition.  The depression is currently passing just south of
 NOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute
 wind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb.  Based on a TAFB
 Dvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind
 speed remains 30 kt.
 
 The environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even
 more hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and
 dry air.  These conditions should cause the depression to weaken
 during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate
 into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours.  All of the
 dynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before
 reaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the
 cyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below.
 
 The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt.  The
 depression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward
 to westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day
 or so.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
 advisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0900Z 13.9N  53.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 14.3N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 14.9N  59.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  24/1800Z 15.4N  64.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown