009 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 122040
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011
 200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH MEXICAN RADAR DATA OUT OF MOZOTAL AND
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
 CROSSED THE COAST BETWEEN SALINA CRUZ AND ARRIAGA DURING THE LAST
 SEVERAL HOURS.  NOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND...CLOUD TOP
 TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING...INDICATIVE THAT WEAKENING HAS
 ALREADY BEGUN. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY LOSE ITS
 IDENTITY WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE GYRE OVER MEXICO WITHIN 24
 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INDICATE REMNANT
 LOW STATUS IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS.
  
 CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/06.  THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS
 SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
 TO WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.
  
 VERY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA EVEN AFTER THE
 DEPRESSION DISSIPATES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
 FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/2100Z 16.3N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 16.8N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN