628 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 120854
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011
 200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
  
 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
 BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEEP
 CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND CURVATURE NEAR AND TO THE
 WEST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AT AROUND 04Z SHOWED THE
 CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS WAS
 CONFIRMED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE
 INITIATED AT THIS TIME. THE DEPRESSION HAS LIMITED TIME TO
 STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND...AND ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
 IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO
 MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
 CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN...AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER LOSING DEFINITION BY 48 HOURS IN AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC
 FLOW THAT DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
 SEA. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
 SHIPS AND LGEM. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4...AS THE DEPRESSION IS
 CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
 THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
 GULF OF MEXICO...THE STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND SHOULD
 CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE TO THE
 LEFT OF THE GFS THROUGH DISSIPATION. 
 
 THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
 PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...EVEN AFTER THE
 SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/0900Z 14.7N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z 15.2N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  13/0600Z 15.7N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  36H  13/1800Z 15.9N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN