086 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 180846
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014
 
 Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is
 intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and
 the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better
 defined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed
 off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on
 radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing,
 and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the
 latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and
 light-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor
 continued intensification.  In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a
 nearly 70 0kelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the
 next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the cyclone's proximity
 to land, which would end the current intensification phase. Given
 the current trend, the NHC intensity forecast is increased
 significantly over the previous one and is much higher than all of
 the available intensity guidance. A major caveat to the forecast is
 that the predicted intensity could be too low should the cyclone
 remain offshore longer than anticipated.
 
 Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward,
 with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The
 synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered
 very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern
 periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during
 the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the
 east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS
 ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with
 landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours.
 
 Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of
 Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna
 de Chacahua.
 
 It is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is
 will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash
 flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the
 next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0900Z 16.2N  98.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  18/1800Z 16.4N  98.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
  24H  19/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  36H  19/1800Z 16.6N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain